Jim

With a cat in my lap. I'll respond to your crystal ball observations on our future.

One of the interesting developments in the south, at least in Alabama, has been the competition our paper industry has seen from ... the auto industry. Until the building of the Hyundai plant in Montgomery, there were few industries in this area who could offer a reasonably high paying job for a capable high school graduate, other than pulp & paper. Now there is the auto industry, and not just the plant itself but also the supporting companies who have built facilities in the area. So here is a Generation 2 industry competing for the workers who before would die for a job in the Generation 1 industry (and may have had to wait for someone to die to get one).

A second thought is that the workforce is slowly becoming accustomed to the Generation 2 industries and their personnel policies (like you noted - no pension offerings & the like). So when a Generation 1 company begins the transition to Generation 2, the workforce should be at least aware of what is coming down the pike.

Third, many of us have seen the results of companies folding following the collapse of its pension fund. Not a pretty sight. Let's hope we can avoid these kind of disasters.

Did you ever consider a Harley? There's a V-Rod in FL that looks great.

Peace,

Gene Canavan
Prattville, Alabama, USA

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Gene:

You bring up an interesting point about the competition for Generation 1 industries. Hadn't thought of that. And there is going to be more down your way. That Kia plant they are building next to I-85 on the Alabama/Georgia border is huge! I don't know of a pulp and paper mill in North America that has such a large footprint.

Can't afford a Harley. Or shall we say the boss says we will not take that big of an allocation out of the pension fund for me to have a toy (just kidding, boss).

Jim

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Hi Jim,

Your column evoked some memories of comments Dr. Peterson at Miami U. always said, "We aren't so good at making money, but papermakers LOVE to make paper", and "How do you make a buck in the paper industry? Start with 10." Obviously old-timer opinions - but hey, consider the source.....

I clearly fall into a new generation with upwards of 30 years ahead of me (hopefully 20 if we get our {bleep} together), I say:

1. "As the public averts their attention to the environment, global warming, and the cost/sustainability of energy, what business can possibly be more GREEN than growing trees?"
2. "As advertising dollars get further diluted in every conceivable medium, the best money consumer companies can spend will be the billboard at the point of purchase that is called the package."
3. "As the world's population is pulled out of poverty, let's rest assured they will pick up a book or newspaper."

Generation 2 has more going for it than most realize. The trick will be to make a buck in the process. Things in the North American industry may be somewhat uncomfortable or depressing now, whether you're an employee or investor, but the future is full of opportunities if we in the industry are willing to change what we feel is important.

Hope you are doing well in Hotlanta.

Steve Sena
Ohio, USA

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Steve:

I doon't know if I agree with your points 2 and 3, but 1 is a home run. The deer hunters in this country got the deer herds up by good husbandry so that they could hunt more deer. I might add, they were highly successful, in that now we are practically begging people to shoot deer, they have become so plentiful. Perhaps we could take the same tact with trees? So far we have only been criticized for cutting them, but if we could turn that argument around...

Jim

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Jim,

Again, you've hit the proverbial nail on the head.

Joel Arthur Barker has written several books on paradigms and how they limit thinking which limits innovative thought which generally means that we will build our futures based on our past.

I've read two of his books, "Future Edge" and "Paradigm Pioneers", both had excellent examples of how our core beliefs filter our data receptors so strongly that even concrete, indisputable data can appear very different to different people.

In one of the books he stated that most major breakthroughs applied in industry and business will be applied by people outside of the effected 'industry' or 'business' largely because they don't have the paradigms built on history, rhetoric, and experience that got them where they are.

I'm also reminded of a quote that Stephen Covey made, "You can't talk your way out of a situation that you behaved yourself into."

Know that you have at least one dedicated and generally in-tune reader.

Keep up the good work; some are listening.

Ed Turner
Houston, Texas, USA

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Ed--Don't tell the potential advertisers I have only one reader!!! There goes my retirement plan!!

Jim

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