Cardboard-box shipments in the U.S. have dropped to their lowest point since 2016, with total demand down 9% in 2025. The decline reflects slower consumer spending, reduced manufacturing activity, and cost-cutting by e-commerce firms, all of which are curbing the need for corrugated packaging.

Per-capita shipments have fallen more than 20% from their 1999 peak, according to packaging analyst Adam Josephson, who told WSJ the current downturn is unprecedented in scale. International Paper, the largest U.S. box maker, had forecast 1% growth in 2025 but now expects demand to fall 2%, CEO Andy Silvernail told investors.

The slump has triggered the fastest wave of mill closures since the 2009 recession. International Paper will shut down two containerboard mills in Savannah and Riceboro, Georgia, by the end of September. Along with the earlier closure of a Louisiana plant, these cuts will remove 9% of the nation's production capacity in just eight months, double the rate lost in the last major downturn. Silvernail said the Georgia closures are part of a strategic shift to eliminate low-margin sites and prioritize investments in high-return assets.

At an investor conference this month, Silvernail said the Savannah mill alone required about $300 million in repairs that offered "no economic value".

The downturn contradicts expectations that e-commerce would drive steady growth in box demand. While online sales surged during the pandemic, companies like Amazon have since reduced their use of corrugated packaging by shifting to mailers, cutting excess boxing, and using more precise sizing.