In early July 2025, representatives from politics, business, and science gathered in Berlin to discuss the future of German forests. Read how Mercer is actively shaping structural change and responding to climate change, raw wood supply, and new markets.

The German forestry and wood industry gathered in Berlin for an important exchange on the future of the sector: "Charter for Wood 2.0 in Dialogue - Forests in Transition: Perspectives on Forest and Raw Wood Development." Organized by the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Rural Affairs (BMLEH) and the Agency for Renewable Resources (FNR), the conference focused on the results of the current forest development and timber yield modeling (WEHAM). Key topics included adapting forest management to climate change, the future availability of wood, and thus the long-term supply of raw wood for material recycling.

Mercer International was represented at this important event by Dr. Carsten Merforth, spokesperson for the Raw Wood Working Group in the German Timber Industry Association and Mercer COO Sawmill Products, as a participant in a panel discussion, and by Wolfgang Beck, Senior Vice President Global Wood Procurement. Their detailed assessments offer a significant perspective on the challenges and opportunities for globally active wood processors in Germany. But first of all: What is the WEHAM study?

The WEHAM study: Scenarios for the forest of the future

The WEHAM study, conducted by the Thünen Institute on behalf of the BMLEH, models the theoretical raw wood potential of the forest from 2023 to 2062 and the associated forest development. It is based on comprehensive data from the Federal Forest Inventory (BWI 4). The Federal Forest Inventory is a nationwide survey that records the condition and development of German forests every ten years.

Key results of the WEHAM modeling:

• The timber potential is expected to remain at a consistently high level over the next four decades. Over the 40-year forecast period, the average raw timber yield will be 80.6 million cubic meters per year. At the beginning of the period, it will be around 88 million cubic meters per year, which is a good 20 percent above the actual utilization in the 2022 Federal Forest Inventory.
• However, the composition of the timber supply will change fundamentally: hardwood, especially beech, will become increasingly important, while the potential for softwood (especially spruce and pine) will decline.
• Spruce, still our most abundant tree species, is expected to lose a further 15% of its stock, and pine as much as 20%. This is a direct consequence of climate change, which promotes calamities that mainly affect the coniferous tree species currently present in our forests.
• The reforestation of calamity areas will lead to a high volume of raw wood with smaller diameters in the medium term, which will pose new challenges for processing.
• It is important to note that WEHAM provides a model scenario and not an exact prediction of reality. Beck pointed out that developments are strongly influenced by uncertainty factors such as climate, forestry, political influences, political and individual objectives, and, last but not least, the behavior of forest owners.

Challenges and opportunities: The Mercer perspective

Price and competitive pressure: Changes in forest composition and wood availability are having a direct impact on the wood industry--including companies such as Mercer, which rely heavily on softwood. The current and future situation on the raw wood markets poses significant challenges for the industry.

Strategies for softwood

Recent beetle infestations have drastically reduced the availability of spruce wood, with direct consequences for Mercer's sawmills and pulp mills, which rely on softwood. Pine cannot fully replace spruce in the sawmill sector, especially in construction, as building regulations and VOC* emissions limit its use and thus reduce its value. The shortage of softwood will lead to rising prices. Further consolidation of the entire wood processing industry appears likely.

Wolfgang Beck predicted that the profitability of German sawmills could decline and their international competitiveness could weaken. The reasons for this are that companies tend to have to accept lower cutting capacities due to the lower softwood yield per area and larger purchasing radii. This will increase wood and manufacturing costs on the one hand, and reduce economies of scale for covering fixed costs on the other.

Strategic adjustments and solutions from Mercer

Mercer is preparing for a future with a shortage of softwood. The aim is to increase value creation and efficiency in the plants in order to remain competitive.

Higher refinement as a response to rising wood prices

Dr. Carsten Merforth emphasized that in the future, more investment will be needed in the production of high-quality products such as solid structural timber (KVH) and cross-laminated timber (CLT) in order to maximize added value and exploit previously untapped potential for the refinement of simple sawn timber. Merforth considers this approach to be "absolutely essential" for the Friesau site. The company is currently assessing how experience from CLT projects in North America could be applied.

Opportunities in hardwood

In view of the growing potential of hardwood, over 75% of which is currently used as firewood, Dr. Merforth emphasizes that the use of hardwood in completely new product categories must be considered, as classic construction timber products made from hardwood, such as beech ceiling beams, are neither economically nor technologically viable. The aim is to use wood components such as lignin or cellulose as substitutes for petroleum-based products.

Rethinking logistics

Wolfgang Beck emphasizes this as a key point. The forecast shows that significantly less softwood will be available in regions such as the Harz Mountains, Sauerland, and Thuringian Forest. Instead, timber production is increasingly concentrated in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg.

For companies such as Mercer, whose processing plants are located in Thuringia, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt, this shift means significantly higher procurement costs and expenses.

Beck emphasized that Mercer's existing terminal strategy is "just right" for meeting these logistical challenges.

Mobilizing railway stations for timber logistics ensures access to important supply areas, such as the Black Forest or pine regions in central Bavaria. Beck sees Mercer's logistics capabilities as a unique strength that facilitates access to these vital resources.

Continuous flow of wood

A steady flow of wood is crucial for Mercer's plants in order to avoid irregular markets and supply bottlenecks caused by random uses such as beetle infestations. To this end, Merforth calls for more consistent use of softwood stocks, especially in risk areas, in order to accelerate forest conversion and promote mixed stands.

Promotion of fast-growing tree species

Since the areas of sawn timber use in house construction are currently and will continue to be by far the most in demand in terms of volume, forest conversion must continue to provide sufficient proportions of climate change-resistant coniferous tree species. Politicians must provide incentives, such as subsidies, to ensure that the population's demand for climate-friendly, sustainable building materials can continue to be met from domestic forests in the future. Dr. Merforth is also considering promoting fast-growing and easily processable tree species, such as poplar, as an alternative to softwood.

Role of politics: obstacles and potential

The future of the German forestry and timber industry depends largely on the political framework conditions:

Keyword: mobilization of small private forests

A large proportion of coniferous wood is found in small private forests, which account for 52% of the total potential. Wolfgang Beck emphasized that the gap between potential and actual harvesting has historically been large and that previous attempts at mobilization have failed. Political measures such as financial incentives or the promotion of private forestry associations are necessary to promote timber harvesting.

EUDR as an obstacle

The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is seen as a potential obstacle to mobilization in small private forests, as it creates additional bureaucratic hurdles that could deter many owners. This could further reduce the availability of wood resources.

Targeted promotion of timber construction and innovation

Dr. Merforth proposes targeted promotion. Increasing the proportion of timber construction in Germany, for example, to 50% by 2050, would maximize the social benefits of wood as a carbon sink and substitute for energy-intensive building materials such as concrete and cement. He can also imagine promoting softwood in reforestation.

Adjustment of climate targets

There is a desire to adjust the national climate targets for the land use, land use change, and forestry sector (LULUCF) to reflect the real potential.

Coherent forest policy

Dr. Eckard Heuer from the BMLEH emphasized the need for a "coherent forest policy" in Germany that pursues common goals and overcomes conflicts.

Conclusion: Working together for a sustainable future

The German forestry and timber industry is facing fundamental structural change. The WEHAM study provides important insights into the changing raw material base: while the potential for softwood is declining, the importance of hardwood is increasing. Companies such as Mercer are responding with higher processing and innovation strategies.

However, mobilizing private forests, promoting a steady supply of wood, and strengthening timber construction remain key challenges that can only be overcome through close cooperation between science, business, politics, and society.

Mercer supports the vision of a climate-resilient, species-rich and productive forest whose wood is used sustainably to maximise its contribution to climate protection while securing jobs in rural regions. The available data and discussions serve as an impetus to actively shape this change in a data-driven manner.

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* VOC stands for volatile organic compounds, which are released during wood processing and are subject to regulatory restrictions.